板块观点汇总品种中期结构短期结构原油震荡、偏小时周期策略：能化表现依然弱势-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating Core Views - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with most varieties showing a bearish outlook both in the short and medium - term, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2] - The current market hype about "anti - involution" in the energy and chemical sector regarding "backward production capacity" and "orderly exit" should be treated calmly, as the impact on raw materials may not be positive [3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory and the US peak season, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply during the OPEC+ production increase cycle [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507 [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production starts remain at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is neutral, and the fundamentals are weak, with an expected significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium - term [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 7340 [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's mixed rubber exports and China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expected increase in supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the semi - steel tire inventory has reached a record high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with a late - session rebound testing the 14100 resistance. Pay attention to the outcome of the resistance level in the short - term [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of capacity put into production for the raw material butadiene this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have reached record highs, and there is a cost - collapse logic in the future [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily at 11670 [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [13] PX - Logic: After profit recovery, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand side is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [15] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 6870 [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [15] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of polyester production cuts in July, but PTA production starts have declined due to tight PX inventory. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 4840 [17] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and PP production starts have declined. However, recently, the newly put - into - operation capacity has gradually increased, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The short - term resistance level is at 7140 [20] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the previously shut - down plants in Iran are expected to resume production quickly, and the import expectation is still strong. With high supply and weak demand during the off - season, the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, there is a rebound with reduced positions, but the volume is insufficient, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 2510 [22] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearishly viewed [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The resistance is temporarily at 4955 [23] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [23] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume production, and the polyester production starts on the demand side have declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The short - term resistance is at 4345 [27] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27] Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The resistance is temporarily at 7450 [30] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]