Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities based on their unique fundamentals [4][12][21]. - For copper, the 232 tariff uncertainty and inventory changes are key factors affecting price and spread. For alumina, Guinea's policy reform and market sentiment play important roles. For electrolytic aluminum, macro - sentiment and seasonal changes in production and consumption are crucial. Other metals also have their own influencing factors and corresponding price trends [4][12][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,540 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with the Shanghai Copper index increasing positions by 4,906 lots to 601,000 lots. - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai copper dropped to 120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. Guangdong and Tianjin had different spot premiums and changes [2]. - Important资讯 - Logistics transportation of some mines in Peru was disrupted due to roadblocks set by informal miners, leading to an interruption in copper concentrate transportation [3]. - Logic Analysis - The market expects the 232 tariff to be implemented in September - October, and the expectation of a 25% tariff is strengthening. LME inventory is increasing, and short - term external market squeeze risk is easing. Non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively before the 232 tariff is implemented, which supports price and spread [4]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Low - inventory and 232 delay expectations drive prices up. - Arbitrage: Buy near - term and sell far - term. - Options: Wait and see [5][7]. Alumina - Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 130 yuan to 3,071 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 6,396 lots to 422,300 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [8]. - Related资讯 - China's central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and marine economic development. Guinea plans to reform its mining industry, including creating an aluminum ore index and exercising sales and transportation rights. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang had a higher winning bid price for alumina. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts decreased [9][10][11]. - Logic Analysis - Alumina prices rose due to Guinea's new policy and market rumors. The market is worried about the impact on alumina production. The supply - demand of bauxite is in a tight - balance in the second half of the year, and the price is supported but limited by previous over - supply [12]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to market sentiment, and subsequent warehouse receipt changes should be monitored. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 12,660 lots to 693,100 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - Related资讯 - Aluminum inventory decreased slightly. Warehouse receipts decreased. Aluminum rod production decreased last week. China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly in May. The US Senate passed a bill [18]. - Trading Logic - Macro - sentiment improved, and the seasonal decrease in aluminum water conversion rate and the increase in photovoltaic new - installed capacity are important factors. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly in July, and the decline in warehouse receipts may slow down. The off - season of aluminum consumption may not be too severe [21]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with the sector. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities between 7 - 9 and 9 - 12 during de - stocking and exit during stocking. - Options: Wait and see [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract rose 90 yuan to 19,885 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 383 lots to 10,472 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [24]. - Related资讯 - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some places increased. A company plans to build a recycling aluminum project [24][25]. - Trading Logic - The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum. The spot market is weak in the off - season, but the price is supported by cost. There are still futures - spot arbitrage opportunities [28]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to fluctuate strongly with the price of aluminum. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider futures - spot arbitrage when the spread is over 400 yuan. - Options: Wait and see [28]. Zinc - Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.11% to 22,230 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,934 lots to 263,800 lots. - Spot: The spot market in Shanghai had limited trading, with the premium of domestic spot to the average price rising, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines [30]. - Related资讯 - A zinc smelter in Peru resumed production. The domestic zinc ore tender price in June increased [31]. - Logic Analysis - Supply - side interference factors have subsided, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in July. The consumption of zinc is entering the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Domestic social inventory is expected to increase, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [32]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [35][39]. Lead - Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract rose 0.23% to 17,175 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 239 lots to 83,800 lots. - Spot: The spot transaction of primary lead improved, with different regions having different price quotes and changes [35]. - Related资讯 - A recycled lead smelter in the western region will complete maintenance in July and may resume production in August. Overseas crude lead arrived at the port this week [36]. - Logic Analysis - The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters remains high, while the recycled lead smelters are in a loss, and the supply may tighten. The traditional peak season of lead - acid batteries is coming, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [39][40]. Nickel - Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 rose 830 to 121,220 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 2,288 lots. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged [41]. - Related资讯 - Analysts expect nickel prices to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025 due to supply tightening in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [42]. - Logic Analysis - Nickel prices are fluctuating weakly above 120,000 yuan. The demand in July is entering the off - season, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. Indonesia's policy adjustment may have limited impact on actual production, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate [43]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider short - selling on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling call options after rebounds [44][46]. Stainless Steel - Market Review - Futures: The main SS2508 contract rose 135 to 12,670 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,059 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [48]. - Important资讯 - The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism may bring cost risks to stainless steel importers [49][51]. - Logic Analysis - Stainless steel prices rebounded with the commodity market, but exports and domestic demand are weak. The decline in nickel ore prices may provide some breathing space, and there may be hedging opportunities. The upward space of stainless steel prices is limited [52]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Stainless steel prices are expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. Pay attention to domestic stimulus policies and US tariff progress. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53][54]. Tin - Market Review - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2508 contract closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan/ton or 0.44%, with positions increasing by 282 lots to 56,207 lots. - Spot: The spot price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the actual transaction was limited, with most downstream buyers remaining on the sidelines [56]. - Related资讯 - The US Senate passed a tax - cut and spending bill, which is beneficial to photovoltaic stocks [57]. - Logic Analysis - The market expects the 232 tariff to be postponed to September/October. LME inventory is decreasing, and the supply is fragile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term market is strong. Pay attention to the resumption of tin ore production [59]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review - Futures: Driven by the sentiment of polysilicon futures, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 4.79% to 8,210 yuan/ton. - Spot: After the futures price increase, the shipment of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accelerated, with shipment prices ranging from 7,600 to 8,050 yuan/ton [62][63]. - Related资讯 - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons [64]. - Comprehensive Analysis - The demand for industrial silicon will increase in July, and the spot price may not decline before the full resumption of leading manufacturers. Market rumors and policy factors may affect market sentiment. In the short - term, it is recommended to participate in the long - side with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton [64]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - Market Review - Futures: Affected by price - limit rumors, polysilicon futures rose to the daily limit. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased to varying degrees [66]. - Related资讯 - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons, and polysilicon may face inventory accumulation [64][68]. - Comprehensive Analysis - Although the industry is facing negative factors, policy implementation may support the price above 34,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton [68]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long - positions in far - month contracts in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [69]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review - Futures: The main 2509 contract rose 1,980 to 62,780 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 2,761 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increasing by 240 to 23,180 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [70]. - Important资讯 - CATL has future plans for battery recycling and started a battery factory project in Indonesia. Chile's copper company obtained a lithium mining quota, and the Chilean Congress passed a bill to speed up project approval [71][73]. - Logic Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices rose, but the industry has over - capacity. In July, the supply may increase, and the demand may increase slightly. The short - term rebound may not last, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [74]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75][77].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250702
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-02 13:10