银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat. It is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the contracts in August and September may fluctuate slightly stronger [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3630, down 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 15; JD09 closed at 3678, down 6. The 01 - 05 spread was 229, up 12; the 05 - 09 spread was -277, down 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 48, down 3. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [3]. - Spot Market: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.90 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 4.68 yuan per catty, also unchanged [3]. - Profit Calculation: The profit per chicken was 33.58 yuan, up 43.90 from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 4.68 yuan, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2437 yuan, unchanged; the average price of soybean meal was 0, down 2930; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 1.71 yuan, down 0.88 [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - Egg Price: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas and main selling areas remained stable. The mainstream prices across the country mostly remained stable, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales volume was average [6]. - In - production Laying Hen Inventory: In June, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. It is estimated that the in - production laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 will be approximately 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken Seedling Output: In June, the monthly output of laying - hen seedlings of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - Culled Chicken Data: In the week of June 27, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 18.41 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of June 26 was 508 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of June 26, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7937 tons, an increase of 5% from the previous week [8]. - Inventory Data: As of the week of June 26, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.22 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit Data: As of June 26, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was -0.41 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.08 yuan per catty from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 14.6 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. 3. Trading Logic The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat. It is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens [9]. 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell put options [10].