银河期货每日早盘观察-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the US and Brazil having relatively favorable supply - side situations [4]. - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand looseness, while the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - The palm oil market is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, while the rapeseed oil market has a pattern of oversupply [18]. - The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - The pig market has limited supply in the short term but faces future inventory pressure, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and volatile, but may decline in the long - term due to expected increase in planting area [37]. - The egg market's futures price downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [47]. - The apple market's futures price is likely to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July due to low inventory and some impacts on fruit setting [51]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, with the US cotton planting progress slightly behind and the Brazilian cotton harvest progress slow [58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - External Market Conditions: The CBOT soybean index rose 0.22% to 1033.25 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.1% to 284.4 dollars per short ton [2]. - Relevant Information: In May, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to the previous year. The US soybean meal export sales in the 25/26 season reached 204,000 tons. As of June 27, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - Logic Analysis: The international soybean market supply and demand is loose, with good weather in the US, high production in Brazil, and potentially reduced export pressure in Argentina [4]. - Strategy Suggestions: For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For one - sided trading, consider buying at low points. For arbitrage, expect the MRM09 spread to widen [6] Sugar - External Market Conditions: The ICE US sugar主力 contract fell 3.09% to 15.70 cents per pound [7]. - Important Information: In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and that in some regions was stable. The estimated delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is at a low level since 2014 [8][9][11]. - Logic Analysis: The raw sugar market is weak due to loose global supply and demand, and the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - Strategy Suggestions: For one - sided trading, hold short positions as the raw sugar weakens and drags down Zhengzhou sugar. For arbitrage, take profit on the 9 - 1 spread. For options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [16] Oilseeds and Oils - External Market Conditions: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by 0.81% to 53.65 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.50% to 3990 ringgit per ton [14]. - Relevant Information: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly compared to the previous year. StoneX raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports decreased compared to the previous year, while soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports increased [15][17]. - Logic Analysis: Palm oil is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, and rapeseed oil has an oversupply pattern [18]. - Strategy Suggestions: For one - sided trading, consider buying on dips as the short - term oil market may fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [19][20][21] Corn/Corn Starch - External Market Changes: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December主力 contract down 0.5% to 422.0 cents per bushel [24]. - Important Information: The CBOT corn futures slightly declined due to good crop growth and a clear production outlook. The US corn has a high excellent - rate and good future weather conditions. The domestic corn port price is strong, and the North China spot price has declined [25]. - Logic Analysis: The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - Strategy Suggestions: For one - sided trading, the US September corn futures are in a bottom - oscillating state, and adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between corn and starch. For options, those with spot goods can consider a high - level put - writing strategy [27][29] Hogs - Relevant Information: Hog prices are rising in various regions, while piglet and sow prices remain stable. The national average wholesale price of pork decreased [31]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term supply of the hog market is limited, but future inventory pressure exists, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - Strategy Suggestions: For one - sided trading, adopt a bearish approach. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread operation on LH91. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32][34] Peanuts - Important Information: Peanut prices in different regions are stable, oil mill arrivals are at a certain level, peanut oil prices are strong, and peanut meal sales are slow. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has decreased [35][36]. - Logic Analysis: The peanut market has low spot trading volume, stable prices, and expected increase in planting area, with short - term strength and long - term decline potential [37]. - Strategy Suggestions: For one - sided trading, consider short - selling on rallies for the October contract and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [40][41][42] Eggs - Important Information: Egg prices are generally stable across the country, the number of laying hens in stock has increased, the number of culled hens has decreased, egg sales have increased, and the profit per egg is still in a loss or break - even state [44][45][46]. - Trading Logic: The downward space of egg futures prices is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled hens [47]. - Trading Strategies: For one - sided trading, consider building long positions in the August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [48] Apples - Important Information: Apple cold - storage inventory has decreased, import and export volumes have changed, spot prices are stable, and storage profit has increased [49][50]. - Trading Logic: Low inventory may support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the futures price is expected to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July [51]. - Trading Strategies: For one - sided trading, build long positions on dips for the AP10 contract. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [52][53][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market Impact: The ICE US cotton主力 contract fell 0.12% to 67.96 cents per pound [55]. - Important Information: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is slow, the US cotton planting progress is slightly behind, and the planting area is expected to decrease [56][57]. - Trading Logic: The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, and the futures price may be slightly strong in a volatile manner [58][59]. - Trading Strategies: For one - sided trading, expect the US cotton to be mainly oscillating and the Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly strong in the short - term. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [60][64]