资产配置日报：不卷的预期，内卷的现实-20250702

Group 1 - The report highlights the market's focus on the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2][4][8] - The stock market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09%, while the CSI 300 and CSI Dividend indices increased by 0.02% and 0.72% respectively [2] - Domestic commodity markets are performing strongly, driven by expectations of the "anti-involution" policy, with significant gains in sectors such as black metals and photovoltaic materials [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" narrative is expected to continue gaining attention, particularly with upcoming policy announcements related to industries like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and steel [9] - The banking sector is also showing positive trends, with the SW Bank Index rising by 0.75%, reflecting a recovery pattern in the context of low interest rates and unclear market direction [9][10] - The Hong Kong stock market exhibits structural characteristics, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.62%, driven by the "anti-involution" narrative and a rebound in banking stocks [10]