2025年6月第4周：水泥跌至近5年同期最低

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In economic growth, cement prices have dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, while power plant daily consumption has been rising continuously. In terms of inflation, pork prices are fluctuating at a low level, and oil prices are oscillating [1][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Economic Growth: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Continues to Rise - Power plant daily consumption is rising continuously. On July 1, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 842,000 tons, a 5.1% increase from June 24. On June 24, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.84 million tons, a 0.7% increase from June 13 [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable at a high level. On June 27, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, unchanged from June 20; the capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from June 20. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 94.2%, unchanged from June 20 [4][14] - The tire operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. On June 26, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from June 19; the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from June 19. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined slightly [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years - The property market sales continue to improve month - on - month. On July 1, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 235,000 square meters, a 103.0% increase from June, a 46.6% decrease from July last year, and a 5.7% increase from July 2023 [4][21] - The automobile market retail sales are stable and relatively strong. In June, retail sales increased by 24% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 14% year - on - year [4][23] - Steel prices vary. On July 1, compared with June 24, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices increased by 1.3%, decreased by 1.9%, increased by 1.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively [4][28] - Cement has dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. On July 1, the national cement price index decreased by 1.4% compared with June 24. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][29] - Glass prices fluctuate weakly. On July 1, the active glass futures contract price was 988 yuan/ton, a 2.6% decrease from June 24 [4][35] - The decline of the container shipping freight rate index has slowed down. On June 27, the CCFI index increased by 2.0% compared with June 20, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% [4][38] 2. Inflation: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level - Pork prices fluctuate at a low level. On July 1, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from June 24 [4][42] - The agricultural product price index is declining moderately. On July 1, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with June 24 [4][47] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Oscillate - Oil prices oscillate. On July 1, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 65.5 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.6% decrease and a 1.7% increase from June 24 [4][50] - Copper and aluminum prices rise. On July 1, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively compared with June 24 [4][54] - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index has narrowed. On July 1, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.2% compared with June 24, and the CRB index increased by 0.4% [4][54] - Industrial product prices vary. Since July, the month - on - month prices of coking coal, coke, and hot - rolled sheets have increased, while the month - on - month prices of cement, glass, steam coal, and other steel products have decreased. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [59]