超长信用还有多少空间？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased, while the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled. The spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities continues to narrow. Accounts with stable liability ends need to reasonably control the position of ultra - long credit bonds [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down. Factors such as the slight tightening of cross - quarter funds, the tilt of the stock - bond balance, and the net value fluctuations of credit bond ETFs have disturbed the sentiment of going long on ultra - long credit bonds. The yield distribution of existing ultra - long credit bonds this week is generally the same as last week, and the number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% remains at 650 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long industrial bonds remains high. The issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week totals 29.5 billion, basically the same as last week, and ultra - long industrial bonds are still the main new addition. However, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled this week, which is related to the average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds dropping to a new low and the increased volatility of the capital market near the end of the quarter [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. In the latest week, the equity market has strengthened. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the indexes of mainstream bond varieties have weakened, but the index of credit bonds over 7 years has been relatively stable, with the weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years being 0.18%. - The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased. Although the preference for ultra - long credit bonds has been disturbed by the strengthening of equity assets this week, the weekly trading volume of industrial bonds from 7 - 10 years has dropped to 448, while the trading volume of industrial bonds over 10 years has increased to 176, reaching a new high in weekly trading volume since 2024. In terms of trading returns, the average weekly trading return of industrial bonds over 7 years has dropped to a new low, and the spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to 25BP. - The trading of ultra - long credit bonds is still mainly at a low valuation, and the low - valuation trading margin of industrial bonds from 20 - 30 years is at the forefront. However, the proportion of TKN trades in credit bonds over 7 years has decreased significantly, indicating that investors still have concerns about the sustainability of the market for this variety. - In terms of investor structure, insurance companies and funds have continued to buy ultra - long credit bonds this week, but the intensity of funds chasing long - term credit has slowed down, and the scale of increasing the position of 5 - 10 - year credit bonds this week has dropped to 3.2 billion [4][32][42]