光大证券晨会速递-20250703

Group 1: Market Overview - The coal, float glass, and steel industries are expected to experience negative profit growth year-on-year, while the refining industry maintains stable profitability due to a rebound in oil prices [1] - The overall economic data shows stability, with PMI rolling averages stabilizing and housing sales area declining slightly year-on-year [1] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index increased month-on-month, indicating a high market sentiment with over 60% of stocks rising [2] - Momentum indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with short-term sentiment indicators placing the CSI 300 index in a favorable emotional zone [2] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 1.8 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [3] - The sales area for the same period was 85.97 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [3] - Some leading real estate companies, such as China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property, showed positive sales growth, with increases of 20% and 11% respectively [3] Group 4: Company Research - The report highlights that GoerTek, a leading XR design and manufacturing company, is expected to benefit from the launch of AI glasses by Xiaomi, indicating a positive growth trend in the XR business [4] - The company's market share in XR manufacturing is high, and factors such as the recovery of its headphone business and optimization of its smart hardware product structure are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The projected PE ratios for GoerTek from 2025 to 2027 are 24X, 20X, and 17X respectively, supporting a "buy" rating for the company [4]