原油：地缘仍有升级风险，或延续强势

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 3, 2025 [1] - Report title: Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks may still escalate, and the strong trend may continue [2] - Analyst: Huang Liunan [3] Group 2: Market Quotes - WTI August crude oil futures closed up $2.00/barrel, or 3.05%, at $67.45/barrel [3] - Brent September crude oil futures closed up $2.00/barrel, or 2.98%, at $69.11/barrel [3] - SC2508 crude oil futures closed up 10.50 yuan/barrel, or 2.11%, at 509.00 yuan/barrel [3] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs: If OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react significantly as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [4] - PAJ: Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 43,529 kiloliters from the previous week [4] - Iran's President Pezeshkian announced the formal implementation of a law to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - Fujeirah refined oil inventory: In the week ending June 30, the total refined oil inventory increased by 36,000 barrels week-on-week [4] - Ukraine's Naftogaz signed a contract with Poland's Orlen to purchase 140 million cubic meters of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) [4] - Russia's LNG exports from January to June decreased by 4.4% year-on-year [4] - The US June ADP employment number was -3.3, compared with a previous value of 2.9 and an expected value of 9.5 [4] - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels [4] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA): Last week, US crude oil imports from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019 [4] - EIA report: In the week ending June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels/day to 2.305 million barrels/day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.2 million barrels to 13.433 million barrels/day; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, an increase of 0.93%; the four-week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.288 million barrels/day, a decrease of 1.12% compared with the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels/day, an increase of 975,000 barrels/day from the previous week [4] - Citigroup: If the oil price falls to $50/barrel, OPEC+ may slow down the pace of production increase [4] - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi: There is currently no accurate information about the damage to nuclear facilities, but it seems that these facilities are currently inoperable. It is necessary to wait for the assessment report to show how long it will take to restart these facilities or whether they can be restarted [4] - On July 2, local time, the US Department of Defense spokesman Sean Parnell said that the US currently assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed and Iran's nuclear program has been postponed by about 1 to 2 years. Earlier this month, the US launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 2, indicating a strong bullish view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]