宝城期货国债期货早报-20250703

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate, with the core logic being the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak performance of May credit and inflation data reflects insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, so the policy is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, and the support for Treasury bond futures is strong. Although there was a correction last week due to eased external risks and marginal improvement of June manufacturing PMI, the downward space is limited as market interest rates are anchored by policy rates, and Treasury bond futures will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term time period is within one week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term view is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, the intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, and the overall view is to fluctuate. The core logic is the marginal improvement of manufacturing PMI data [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is to fluctuate weakly, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the reference view is to fluctuate. The core logic is that the weak May credit and inflation data show insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, so the policy will keep the monetary environment loose. Last week's correction was due to external factors and PMI improvement, but the downward space is limited, and Treasury bond futures will fluctuate in the short term [5].