生猪日报：期价上涨-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].