五矿期货贵金属日报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed is expected to turn dovish in the July FOMC meeting, confirm the pace of rate cuts in the second half of the year, and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting. In the context of the Fed's looser monetary policy expectations, focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Precious Metals Prices: Shanghai Gold rose 0.26% to 779.66 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.71% to 8845.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.07% to 3362.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 36.77 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.3%, and the US dollar index was 96.74 [2] - Other Market Indicators: Au(T + D) fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.77% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. The London Gold price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and the London Silver price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.06% to 947.66 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.29% to 14869.01 tons [4] Market Outlook - The weak US ADP employment data released yesterday strengthened market expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, which is a positive factor for precious metal prices. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Powell emphasized the Fed's data - dependence in decision - making, and the ADP data reflected the weakening of the US labor market. The focus is on the US non - farm payrolls change in June to be released tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 110,000, lower than the previous 139,000. If the non - farm data is lower than expected again, market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will further increase [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.56% to 3368.70 dollars/ounce, but trading volume fell 21.25% to 129,500 lots, and open interest fell 1.42% to 435,000 lots. LBMA Gold's closing price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and inventory remained unchanged at 1152 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.01% to 776.04 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 8.70% to 303,900 lots, open interest fell 0.83% to 410,400 lots, and inventory rose 0.02% to 18.46 tons. Au(T + D) closing price fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, trading volume fell 23.89% to 29.77 tons, and open interest rose 3.54% to 225.29 tons [6] - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.50% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, open interest fell 5.53% to 174,600 lots, and inventory fell 0.20% to 15,557 tons. LBMA Silver's closing price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.72% to 8,747.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume fell 4.76% to 627,700 lots, open interest fell 2.21% to 841,400 lots, and inventory fell 0.01% to 1,338.66 tons. Ag(T + D) closing price fell 0.77% to 8,737.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 26.04% to 521.32 tons, and open interest rose 0.35% to 3,142.008 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - Gold: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was - 4.41 yuan/gram (- 19.14 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.18 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50] - Silver: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was 302.10 yuan/kilogram (1.31 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was 321.91 yuan/kilogram (1.40 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50]