国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250703

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated July 3, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The governance of involutionary competition mainly affects the downstream automotive industry demand, and attention should be paid to the amplification of volatility by macro - sentiment disturbances [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: Short - term sentiment disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upward space [2][13] - Polysilicon: The futures market is expected to rise first and then fall [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,220 yuan, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,670 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads compared to previous periods [4] - Macro and Industry News: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and adjust production according to the market; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [4][5][7][8] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,980 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [10] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a rumored suspension of an Australian mining company was untrue; a Chilean joint - venture obtained a lithium - mining quota approval [11][12] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,210 yuan, and the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [13] - Macro and Industry News: The Southern Regional Power Market started continuous settlement trial operation [13][15] - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]