国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250703

Report Overview - The report is the commodity research morning report of Guotai Junan Futures on July 3, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean meal, and corn [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Positive sentiment in US soybean oil drives up international oil prices [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of weather speculation on US soybeans results in a lack of driving force [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight rise in US soybeans may lead to a rebound in domestic soybean meal [2][9] - Soybean: The rebound in the soybean market may drive up the futures price [2][9] - Corn: Expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Sugar: Likely to be weak [2][15] - Cotton: Futures prices are supported by optimistic market sentiment [2][18] - Eggs: As the peak season approaches, the number of culled chickens is difficult to increase [2][24] - Hogs: Short - term sentiment is strong [2][26] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][32] Summary by Category Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices all rose, with palm oil up 1.25% during the day and 0.47% at night; soybean oil up 0.58% during the day and unchanged at night; rapeseed oil up 1.50% during the day and 0.30% at night. Malaysian palm oil and CBOT soybean oil also showed significant increases [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast; Malaysia's production is expected to increase slightly. Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 42.1 million tons, 1.2% higher than last month's forecast and 0.7% higher than 2023/24. Crude oil price fluctuations due to the Israel - Iran conflict have affected the vegetable oil market [5][6] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose 1.97%, and domestic soybean meal and soybean futures may follow the upward trend. The trading volume of domestic soybean meal increased significantly, and the inventory also rose [9] - Macro and Industry News: On July 2, CBOT soybeans rose due to active bargain - hunting and a surge in soybean oil. Market rumors about potential progress in China - US trade negotiations also influenced the market, but the rumors could not be confirmed. The ideal weather in the US Midwest continued to put pressure on prices [9][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean are both +1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Corn futures prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. The basis of the main contract was 17 yuan/ton [12] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while North China prices rose slightly. The prices of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley were also reported [13] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14] Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The original sugar price was 15.5 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents; the mainstream spot price was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures main contract price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [15] - Macro and Industry News: The New York raw sugar July contract fell sharply before expiration. Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year. The USDA expects global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season. Brazil's May exports decreased by 20% year - on - year, while China's May imports were 350,000 tons [15] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [17] Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: Cotton futures prices rose slightly, with the domestic main contract up 0.44% during the day and 0.04% at night. ICE cotton also rose due to overall market optimism. The spot market was mostly quiet, and the basis remained stable [18][19][20] - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The cotton yarn market was weak, with spinning mills facing increased losses and inventory pressure [19] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg futures prices declined slightly, with the 2508 contract down 0.32% and the 2510 contract down 0.33%. Spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [24] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [24] Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Hog spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. Futures prices also rose, with the trading volume and open interest increasing. The basis of the main contract was 790 yuan/ton [28] - Market Logic: The market is in the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserves and the unanimous bullish view for July - August have boosted sentiment. Attention should be paid to the spot performance as the pigs from the large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [30] - Trend Intensity: Hog trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29] Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Peanut futures prices rose slightly, with the PK510 contract up 0.71% and the PK511 contract up 0.48%. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [32] - Spot Market Focus: Peanut production areas have low inventory and small supply. Most regions' prices are stable, and the trading volume is average [33] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [34]