宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250703

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it's oscillating with a slight upward trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns about US tariffs are driving the dollar index down and leading to a rebound in gold prices [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it's expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the improvement in macro - risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction are driving up copper prices [1][5]. 3) Summary by Each Variety Gold (AU) - View: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillate; Intraday: oscillate with a slight upward trend; Recommended: wait and see [1][3]. - Core Logic: Overseas gold prices have reached around $3350, and domestic ones are approaching 780 yuan. The rising short - term interest rate cut expectations and concerns about US tariffs, along with the weakening dollar index, have led to a rebound in gold prices. The US small non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the focus is on today's non - farm data. The market risk appetite remains high, and attention should be paid to the long - short game around the 60 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday: rise; Recommended: be bullish in the short - term [1][5]. - Core Logic: The copper price has been rising, with the night - session main contract approaching 81,000 yuan and the open interest at 600,000 lots. The rise is mainly macro - driven, including the improvement in global risk appetite after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the rising Fed interest rate cut expectations, the continuous efforts of domestic macro - policies, and the increasing expectations of supply - side contraction. Technically, the copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through 80,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5].