Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a strong and volatile trend, boosted by macro sentiment [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,065 yuan/ton and 3,191 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 78 yuan/ton (2.61%) and 70 yuan/ton (2.24%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,371,284 lots, and the position was 2,226,379 lots, an increase of 150,312 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 920,428 lots, and the position was 1,595,758 lots, an increase of 73,130 lots [3]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions increased. For example, in Shanghai, the price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of hot-rolled coil increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,220 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to regulate the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3]. - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of China's economic prosperity [3]. - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26th, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 5.66 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.79 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 12.48 million tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 2.07 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.99 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 1.14 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 0.72 million tons, hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 4.44 million tons, and the total demand of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 million tons [5]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5].
螺纹钢：宏观情绪提振，偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-03 01:46