棉花：期价受市场乐观情绪支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton futures price is supported by the optimistic sentiment in the market, and the ICE cotton futures rose yesterday due to the overall optimistic sentiment in the commodity market [1][3]. - The spot trading of domestic cotton is mostly sluggish, and the overall basis remains stable. The market situation of pure - cotton yarn has little change, the losses of inland spinning enterprises have expanded, downstream demand is weak, and the number of enterprises reducing or suspending production continues to increase. The overall sales of the all - cotton grey fabric market are weak, and fabric mills face significant inventory pressure [1][2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,805 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.44%, and its night - session closing price was 13,810 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.04%. CY2509 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.15%, and its night - session closing price was 20,075 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.00%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 68.64 cents/pound with a 1.00% increase [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2509 was 259,796 lots, an increase of 3,746 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 852,918 lots, a decrease of 1,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,387 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,405 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,190, a decrease of 21, and the effective forecast was 269, a decrease of 32. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 4 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.46% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.41%. The price in Shandong was 15,146 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan or - 0.38%, and in Hebei was 15,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan or - 0.30%. The 3128B index was 15,163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan or - 0.32%. The international cotton index (M: CNCottonM) was 75.54 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged, and its arrival price was 21,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan or 0.06% [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day to - 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF2509 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 has a relatively good - trading basis in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1000 - 1300, and the Corps' quotation for the same quality is in the range of 1300 - 1450, with low - price Kashgar goods quoted around 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The market situation of pure - cotton yarn has little change. Inland spinning enterprises' losses have expanded, downstream demand is weak, the inventory of spinning enterprises is accumulating at an accelerating pace, and the number of enterprises reducing or suspending production continues to increase. The all - cotton grey fabric market has weak overall sales, fabric mills have weak shipments, and face significant inventory pressure and offer price discounts based on quantity [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4][5].