棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨，豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The sentiment of US soybean oil is positive, leading to an increase in international oil prices. However, there is insufficient weather speculation for US soybeans, resulting in a lack of driving force for soybean oil [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Prices: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,440 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.25% increase and 8,480 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.47% increase. - Soybean oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,018 yuan/ton during both the day and night sessions, with a 0.58% increase during the day and 0.00% at night. - Rapeseed oil futures (domestic) closed at 9,619 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.50% increase and 9,648 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.30% increase. - Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 4,063 ringgit/ton during the day session with a 2.34% increase and 4,079 ringgit/ton during the night session with a 0.42% increase. - CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 55.07 cents/pound with a 2.59% increase [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: - Palm oil futures trading volume was 576,422 lots, an increase of 96,919 lots, and open interest was 452,137 lots, an increase of 23,906 lots. - Soybean oil futures trading volume was 363,901 lots, an increase of 108,837 lots, and open interest was 560,808 lots, an increase of 10,433 lots. - Rapeseed oil futures trading volume was 345,440 lots, an increase of 48,319 lots, and open interest was 330,024 lots, an increase of 20,684 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price was 1,005 dollars/ton, with no change [1]. - Basis: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 202 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was - 19 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,179 yuan/ton, compared to 1,141 yuan/ton the day before. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 422 yuan/ton, compared to - 364 yuan/ton the day before. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, compared to - 24 yuan/ton the day before. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, compared to 42 yuan/ton the day before. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan/ton, compared to 49 yuan/ton the day before [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 19.1 million tons, with a slight increase from the previous forecast due to good harvesting conditions. - Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 42.1 million tons, 1.2% higher than last month's forecast and 0.7% higher than the 2023/24 level. - Thailand's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 3.52 million tons, a 1.9% decrease from the previous forecast, with an expected range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In April, Thailand's production reached a record 421,000 tons, a 39.8% increase from March. - As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons. - The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area this year, mainly due to farmers switching to other crops like corn, red millet, and cotton [2][3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [5].