冠通期货资讯早间报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including the trends of various futures, important macro - economic news, and the performance of different financial sectors. It also provides data on industries such as energy, metals, agriculture, and offers insights into market expectations and industry developments. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 3.18% at $67.53 per barrel and Brent crude up 3.00% at $69.12 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold up 0.56% at $3368.7 per ounce and COMEX silver up 1.08% at $36.79 per ounce [3]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME zinc up 1.44% at $2753.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.25% at $2063.50 per ton, and LME copper up 0.77% at $10010.00 per ton [4]. - CBOT agricultural product futures closed higher across the board, with soybeans up 2.00% at 1047.75 cents per bushel, corn up 3.02% at 418.25 cents per bushel, and wheat up 2.91% at 565.00 cents per bushel [4]. - Most domestic futures contracts rose, with glass up over 3%, coking coal up over 2%, and others like iron ore and coke up over 1%. Some contracts like 20 - gauge rubber (NR) and corn declined slightly. SC crude closed up 2.11% at 509.0 yuan per barrel [4]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In the first half of 2025, the scale of new special bonds issued across the country was about 2.1607 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 44.7%. The scale of local bond issuance was about 5.4902 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 57.2% [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability and preventing risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds [7]. - The People's Bank of China issued a notice on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing management for precious metal and gemstone institutions [7]. - Hamas is studying a new cease - fire agreement draft for the Gaza Strip, while Israel aims to free hostages and eliminate Hamas [8]. - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency called for an investigation into Fed Chairman Powell [8]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3% [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 30, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 3.6 million barrels to 19.156 million barrels. Light distillate and medium distillate inventories increased, while heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased [11]. - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC + decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not react strongly. It expects the August production increase to be the last, but there is a risk of further quota increases after August [11]. - As of July 2, China's methanol port inventory was 67.37 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region saw inventory reduction [11]. - As of June 27, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [12]. Metal Futures - Guinea's mining minister announced a series of reforms for the mining industry [14]. - US private - sector employment decreased by 33,000 in June, the largest decline since March 2023 [14]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [15]. Black - Series Futures - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast to 31 - 35 million tons from the previous 38 - 42 million tons [17]. - Regarding the rumor of a 30% sintering machine production limit in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, about half of the steel mills said they received the notice, and if implemented, sinter production may decrease by 30,000 tons per day [17]. - On July 2, coal production in Ordos gradually recovered as some previously reduced - production or shut - down mines resumed operations [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 18% to 216,000 tons. Total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1.53 million tons [20][21]. - As of June 27, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory was 8.949 million bushels, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 159.69% increase from the same period last year [21]. - China's soybean purchases for August shipments are almost complete, about 50% for September shipments, and there are no purchases for October - December shipments [22]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market closed lower, with technology stocks falling and resource stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 3454.79 points, and the market turnover was 1.41 trillion yuan [24]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.62% to 24,221.41 points. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.036 billion, while Alibaba was net - sold HK$1.734 billion [24]. - In June, A - share new accounts reached 1.65 million, a 5.84% month - on - month increase. In the first half of 2025, A - share new accounts totaled 12.6 million, a 32.77% increase from the same period in 2024 [25]. - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 18.68%. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$731.193 billion, a record high for the same period [27]. Industry - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [29]. - The financial regulatory authority is seeking opinions on strengthening non - insurance regulation, aiming to address issues such as disguised fee cuts and agency arbitrage [30][31]. - In the 2025 trial evaluation of securities firms' financial "five major articles", Citic Securities, Citic Construction Investment, and Guotai Junan ranked among the top three in multiple key statistics [31]. - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were officially approved [31]. - In June, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.26 million, a 29% year - on - year increase and a 3% month - on - month increase. From January to June, cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a 38% year - on - year increase [32]. Overseas - The US believes that Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed, and its nuclear program has been postponed by 1 - 2 years [33]. - Twenty US states sued the Trump administration over the sharing of Medicaid patient data for immigration enforcement [35]. - The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with Vietnam imposing a 20% tariff on US exports and canceling tariffs on US imports [35]. - The EU proposed a revision to the "European Climate Law", aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels [35]. - Australia's retail sales in May increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than market expectations [35]. - South Korea's CPI in June increased by 2.2% year - on - year, higher than market expectations [36]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.02%, the S&P 500 up 0.47% (a new high), and the Nasdaq up 0.94%. Chinese concept stocks also showed mixed performance [37]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.49%, the French CAC40 up 0.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.12% [37]. - The "irrational exuberance index" of US stocks has reached a warning level, raising concerns about a new bubble [39]. - BlackRock's international clients are reducing their investment in the US market and looking for opportunities in other markets [39]. - Due to political and trade risks in Thailand, overseas institutional investors have been net - selling Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative withdrawal of $3.9 billion [40]. Commodities - International oil prices rose, driven by the US - Vietnam trade agreement and geopolitical tensions [41]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and weak employment data [41]. - Most London base metals rose, with copper prices fluctuating at a high level due to uncertainty about the Fed's interest - rate cut [41]. - Vale lowered its 2025 iron ore pellet production forecast [43]. Bonds - The domestic bond market continued to perform strongly, with bond yields falling slightly and bond futures rising. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosted market sentiment [44]. - Schroder upgraded its outlook for global corporate bonds from "negative" to "neutral" and maintained an optimistic view on global stocks [44]. - US bond yields rose across the board, affected by the sell - off in the UK bond market [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1670 on Wednesday, down 52 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 96.78, and most non - US currencies declined [45].