国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250703

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated July 3, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - Silver: Continuing to surge [2] - Copper: The price remains firm as the US dollar is under pressure [2] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2] - Lead: Bullish in the medium term [2] - Tin: Driven upward by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Fundamentals - Gold: The closing prices of Comex gold 2508 and London gold spot increased by 0.56% and 0.79% respectively; the trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view [5][8] - Silver: The closing prices of Comex silver 2508 increased by 1.50%; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [5][8] - Macro and Industry News - Trump's "Great Beauty" bill is blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party intensifies - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing: the US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 [5][9] 3.2 Copper - Fundamentals - The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.67%, and the inventory decreased by 625 tons; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [10][12] - Macro and Industry News - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and employment market cooling may accelerate interest rate cuts - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project is approved, and the production scale will increase to 30 million tons per year [10][12] 3.3 Zinc - Fundamentals - The closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.11% and 1.00% respectively; the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] - Macro and Industry News - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and the June non - farm report may also be weak [14] 3.4 Lead - Fundamentals - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.44%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.12%; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [16][17] - Macro and Industry News - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and the June non - farm report may be weak [17] 3.5 Tin - Fundamentals - The closing prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.49% and 0.12% respectively; the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [20][22] - Macro and Industry News - Trump's "Great Beauty" bill is blocked, and the "small non - farm" data is disappointing, among other events [20][21] 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,220, and the trend strength is 0; for stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract is 12,670, and the trend strength is 0 [23][28] - Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US - Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters the trial production stage [23][24]