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期指：维持震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-03 01:47

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.15%, IH rose 0.17%, IC fell 0.26%, and IM fell 0.39% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 803 lots, IH increased by 5,144 lots, IC decreased by 3,207 lots, and IM decreased by 16,123 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 676 lots, IH decreased by 656 lots, IC decreased by 1,936 lots, and IM decreased by 8,772 lots [1][2]. b) Basis of Stock Index Futures Graphs of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 6 to July 2 were presented [4]. c) Changes in Positions of the Top 20 Members in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the changes in long and short positions of different contracts varied. For example, in IF2507, long positions increased by 393 lots and short positions decreased by 585 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, the changes in long and short positions also differed among contracts. For instance, in IH2507, long positions increased by 57 lots and short positions increased by 513 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2509, long positions decreased by 1,411 lots and short positions decreased by 1,014 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long positions decreased by 2,240 lots and short positions decreased by 2,144 lots [5]. d) Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. - Important drivers include statements from the Minister of Finance and the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, as well as the performance of the stock market, such as the differentiation of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices, and the performance of various concept stocks [6].