对二甲苯：逢低正套PTA：多PX空PTAMEG：多PX空PTAMEG

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Go long on PX in the event of a price dip and initiate a calendar spread trade [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [1] 2. Core Views - The market is focused on potential supply contractions due to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a significant increase in black building materials futures. Polyester performance remains mediocre. The main issue in the polyester industry is insufficient demand [6]. - Crude oil prices have risen significantly, providing strong support for PX valuation. Multiple PX plants are under maintenance, resulting in a decline in domestic operating rates. Overall, the supply - demand situation for PX is tight [6]. - PTA's basis dropped significantly yesterday, but supply in July is slightly tight, still attracting buyers. The calendar spread may face pressure. After the reduction in bottle - chip production, polyester load has dropped to 89%, and PTA supply has increased month - on - month [6]. - There have been significant changes in overseas MEG plants. The overall increase in MEG supply is limited. With coal prices rebounding from the bottom and losses in the ethylene - purchased process, the downside space for MEG prices is limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Naphtha prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX prices declined today, with an August Asian spot trading at $875 and a September Asian spot at $854. The PX valuation closed at $861/ton, down $13 from yesterday [2]. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian, owned by Hengli, restarted at the end of the month after maintenance in mid - June. A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to about 50% due to an incident, expected to last about 4 days [3]. - MEG: From June 30 to July 6, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang Port are about 68,000 tons, at Taicang Port about 67,000 tons, at Ningbo Port about 15,000 tons, and at Shanghai Port about 0 tons. The total expected arrivals at major ports are about 150,000 tons [3]. - Polyester: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Ningbo plans to shut down a 30,000 - ton fine - denier hollow staple fiber production line this weekend for about 20 days of technical renovation. Yisheng's polyester bottle - chip plant in Hainan (1.25 million tons) started maintenance on July 1, with the restart time undetermined, while the planned maintenance of a 350,000 - ton plant in Dahua was cancelled. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak today, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales - to - production ratio of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Historical Sales Data - In June, the average sales - to - production ratio of mainstream direct - spinning filament plants in China was about 97% (calculated based on shipments), down 5 percentage points from the previous month. The sales atmosphere in the filament market was weak in June due to strong costs and weakening demand [5].