Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks, trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Traders are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance in each sector [4][8][10] - The expectation of supply - side reform has a significant impact on the market, with different industries showing different responses. Some industries may experience price increases due to supply reduction expectations, while others may face challenges due to demand weakness [25][35] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - Stock Index: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the ChiNext Index down 0.13%, and the Shanghai 50 up 0.18%. Total trading volume in the two markets was 1377 billion yuan, a decrease of 89 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [2][4][5] - Treasury Futures: The government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with some ultra - long special treasury bonds to be issued in advance in the third quarter. Yields are expected to move downward in the long run, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7][8] - Precious Metals: Weak US ADP employment data strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will turn dovish in July and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: With a marginal easing of US policy expectations and a reduction in trade concerns, copper prices may continue to rise in the short term but at a slower pace due to reduced consumption resilience and increased exports from China. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [13] - Aluminum: Positive domestic commodity sentiment and low inventory levels support the price of aluminum. It is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton [14] - Zinc: Zinc ore supply remains high, and there is a high expectation of zinc ingot production. The LME market's structure also supports the price, but the overall impact on price trends needs further observation [15] - Lead: The supply of primary lead is high, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [16] - Nickel: The supply - demand surplus of refined nickel persists, and the cost support is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies, with the short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17] - Tin: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [18] - Lithium Carbonate: Salt factories have a high willingness to produce and hedge, and there may be a pressure to accumulate inventory before the peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the market atmosphere and positions, with the reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract being 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [19] - Alumina: The price of alumina futures has risen significantly. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [20] - Stainless Steel: Excess capacity clearance expectations have led to a rebound in commodity valuations, but the stainless - steel market is still weak due to the off - season and price adjustments by steel mills [21] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In the context of a weak off - season, the price of cast aluminum alloy is mainly affected by the cost (aluminum price). It is expected to be volatile in the short term [22] Black Building Materials - Steel: Rumors of strict production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have led to a significant increase in steel prices. The inventory of steel products is currently low, and future price trends depend on policies, demand, and cost support [24][25] - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, waiting for further changes in supply - demand and macro - policies [26][27] - Glass and Soda Ash: The price of glass has rebounded due to policy expectations, and soda ash is expected to follow the rebound. However, the medium - term supply of soda ash is still abundant [28] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The market is optimistic due to the expectation of supply - side reform. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [29][30][31] - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [32][33] Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate and rebound. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on short - term operations [39] - Crude Oil: With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, the oil price has started to rebound. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [40] - Methanol: The current situation of low inventory and strong spot prices in the methanol market. It is recommended to wait and see due to limited short - term contradictions [41] - Urea: The supply of urea is decreasing, and demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [42] - Styrene: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [43] - PVC: The PVC market is facing strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44][45] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are expected to change, and attention should be paid to short - position opportunities on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of ethane imports [46] - PTA: PTA is expected to continue to have a small inventory reduction in July, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [47] - Para - Xylene: PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [48][49] - Polyethylene (PE): The price of PE is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [50] - Polypropylene (PP): The price of PP is expected to be bearish in June due to factors such as supply and demand [51] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The price of pigs may stabilize or continue to rise in some areas. For near - term contracts, short - term long - positions on dips are recommended, while for later - stage contracts, short - positions on rallies are advisable [53] - Eggs: The egg price is expected to remain stable in many areas. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce short - positions on dips or wait and see, while in the medium term, short - positions on rallies are recommended [54] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of soybean meal is in a multi - factor situation. It is recommended to try long - positions on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end [55][56] - Oils and Fats: The US biodiesel policy supports the price of oils and fats, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [57][58] - Sugar: The price of sugar may continue to decline due to factors such as weak demand and high import profits [59] - Cotton: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [60][61]
五矿期货文字早评-20250703
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-03 02:08