五矿期货农产品早报-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean and meal market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in excess. It requires a reduction in production at the raw material end to have upward momentum [2][4]. - The oil market is affected by the U.S. biodiesel policy draft, but the upside space is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It is expected to fluctuate [6][8]. - The sugar price may continue to decline due to factors such as weak real - demand during the delivery of the July contract of raw sugar, chaotic domestic monthly spread structure, and high profit from out - of - quota imports [10][11]. - The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate. The U.S. cotton planting intention report is negative, and the high cotton good rate is not conducive to cotton prices. Although the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations supports cotton prices, the fundamentals are not favorable [13][14]. - The egg price is expected to be stable in many places. Considering the current situation, the medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [16][18]. - The pig price may stop rising and stabilize in some areas, and continue to rise in others. For near - term contracts, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery, while for下半年 contracts, short positions can be taken at high prices later [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Wednesday, the U.S. soybean rose driven by U.S. soybean oil. The U.S. Senate extended 45Z to 2029 and restricted tax credits for non - North American raw materials, which is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil. The good weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas puts pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the valuation is slightly low. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 10 yuan on Wednesday, the oil mill's operating rate is still high, and the far - month sales volume increased. The domestic port soybean inventory and oil mill soybean meal inventory are in an accumulation trend [2]. - Trading Strategy: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end [4]. Oil - Important Information: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, while the production decreased slightly. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month. The U.S. Senate's 45Z bill is beneficial to U.S. soybean oil, driving up the oil market. The EPA policy is beneficial to the oil market, but there are still negative factors due to the recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft supports the oil price center, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. Sugar - Important Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price first fell and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased slightly. As of the end of June 2024/25, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [10]. - Trading Strategy: The sugar price may continue to decline [11]. Cotton - Important Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated strongly. The U.S. 2025 cotton planting area is higher than expected, and the cotton good rate is higher than the same period last year. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. negotiations, but the basis strengthening is not conducive to downstream consumption [13]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - U.S. negotiations [14]. Egg - Important Information: The national egg price is mainly stable, with little change in supply and conservative demand [16]. - Trading Strategy: The medium - term strategy is to wait for a rebound to short, and the short - term strategy for near - month contracts is to reduce short positions or wait and see [18]. Pig - Important Information: The domestic pig price generally rose yesterday. The supply tension may be alleviated, but the downstream slaughter enterprises' willingness to accept high prices is poor [20]. - Trading Strategy: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices before delivery; for下半年 contracts such as 11 and 01, short positions can be taken at high prices later [21].