格林大华期货早盘提示-20250703

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - The macro and global economy is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with the US economy showing signs of expansion, the euro - zone manufacturing stabilizing, and China's manufacturing also having positive developments [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - The US Senate passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by a narrow margin of 1 vote, and some Democratic senators criticized it as "robbing the poor to help the rich" [1] - In May, US JOLTS job openings were 7.769 million, higher than the expected 7.3 million, and the number of voluntary job - leavers increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million, indicating a tight labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the S&P 500 index will continue its upward trend in July and may start to decline next month, driven by improved liquidity, lower volatility, fading recession concerns, and seasonal factors [1] - Last week, the net buying of bank stocks by hedge funds reached the highest level in nearly a decade. Market expectations of banking regulatory relaxation and Fed rate - cut expectations are supporting bank stocks [1] - The price increase of Chinese - made goods sold on the US Amazon website has exceeded the overall US inflation rate, and tariffs are hitting US consumers [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that the US tariff revenue reached an astonishing level, with an annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion in June, equivalent to 1.1% of the US GDP [1] - The euro - zone manufacturing showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, and the German manufacturing PMI reaching a 34 - month high with new orders growing at a 39 - month high [1] - About one - third of Bank of Japan observers expect the next interest rate hike to be in January next year [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Treasury Secretary expects to sign a series of new trade agreements before July 9. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September [1] - The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition, and the photovoltaic glass industry has collectively cut production by 30% [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times. Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which promotes the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - Musk's Neuralink brain - machine interface has made a major technological breakthrough. Morgan Stanley believes that China may take the lead in the "robot race" due to its manufacturing foundation and policy support [1]