Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range [3] - Egg: Low long [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the import corn auction continues, and the spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. In the long term, policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. The pricing logic is import substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. In the medium term, there is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. In the medium term, the supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Summary by Related Items Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated and consolidated. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.25% to 2363 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On July 2, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises were stable. The corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 to 209,951 hands. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 4, 305,964 tons of imported genetically - modified corn will be auctioned. On July 2, 38,000 tons of the planned 40,000 - ton corn auction were sold [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Import corn auctions continue, and the spot market is stable with a slight upward trend. Medium - term: The supply pattern is expected to tighten. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term: Maintain the range - trading idea. Short - term: Verify the upper pressure and find the lower support. The 2509 contract's 2420 pressure has been verified, and the short - term support is 2350 - 2360 [1]. Pig Market Review - The main pig futures contract rose sharply. The LH2509 contract rose 3.2% to 14,340 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 1.12% to 13,550 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the national average pig price was 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/jin. The early - morning pig price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. In May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million. At the end of April, the number of medium - and large - sized pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On July 2, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs was 0.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. On June 26, the average weekly slaughter weight was 125 kg, down 0.46 kg from the previous week. On July 2, the pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 375 to 450 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Short at high levels. Medium - term: Range trading. Short - term: Strengthen to test the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the long. The 2509 contract breaks through the first pressure of 14,000 - 14,100 and the second pressure of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract focuses on the pressure effect of 13,600 - 13,800 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated weakly. The JD2508 contract fell 0.67% to 3544 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.33% to 3678 yuan/500kg [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. The average price of old hens was 4.73 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. In May, the number of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in June was 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. On July 2, the egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 92 to 147 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. Medium - term: The supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the difference between long and short is large. It is recommended to watch more and trade less. The 08 contract runs in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and the lower support at 3480 - 3500. The 09 contract maintains the short - term long and long - term short trading idea. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [4].
格林大华期货玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250703
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-03 02:25