五矿期货早报有色金属-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - Market Situation: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - Market Situation: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - Market Situation: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - Market Situation: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - Price: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - Market Situation: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - Price: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - Inventory: No significant inventory data provided - Market Situation: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - Inventory: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - Market Situation: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - Inventory: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - Market Situation: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - Market Situation: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - Market Situation: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]