格林大华期货甲醇早盘提示-20250703

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Slightly Strong" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the Israel-Iran conflict has temporarily ended, it may flare up again. In July, the downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. Both ports and production areas have slightly increased their inventories this week, and downstream demand has not significantly improved. With the restart of some Iranian plants, the bearish sentiment has been released. The market sentiment has turned positive, and the short - term methanol price will oscillate slightly stronger, with a reference range of 2360 - 2450 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 19 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell by 65 yuan/ton to 2465 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 382 lots to 431,300 lots, and short positions increased by 19,618 lots to 498,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 88.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 54.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% [2] - Demand: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 61,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The olefin operating rate is 87.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 84.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%; the acetic acid operating rate is 95.3%, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 48.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% [2] Market Logic - Geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations, along with supply - side changes, have led to a short - term positive market sentiment and a slightly stronger price trend for methanol [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]