格林大华期货双焦早盘提示-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Report's Core View - The black sector showed overall strong performance today. The market's bullish sentiment was strong due to the emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction policy [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2509 closed at 843.5, a 3.56% increase compared to the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2509 closed at 1442.0, a 3.85% increase compared to the opening of the day session. At night, Jm2509 closed at 844.0, a 0.06% increase compared to the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1435.0, a 0.49% decrease compared to the day - session close [1] Important News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the US, and a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. Vietnam has also agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [1] - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants nationwide was 59.72%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous period; the daily average output was 50.59 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons; the raw coal inventory was 312.17 tons, a decrease of 9.11 tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.98 tons, a decrease of 16.89 tons [1] - On July 2nd, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 10 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur coking clean coal with A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1180 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [1] - On July 2nd, the online auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market increased. For the medium - yang low - sulfur coking clean coal with A10.5, S0.8, G85, 0.8 tons were listed, with a starting price of 1030 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 1128 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 25th. For the Liulin high - sulfur coking coal with A11, S1.85 - 2.0, G85, 3 tons were listed, with a starting price of 850 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 939 yuan/ton, a 43 - yuan increase compared to June 6th. For the Xiaoyi high - sulfur coking coal with A10.5, S3.0, G85, 3.5 tons were listed on the road, with a starting price of 810 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 843 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to June 26th [1] Market Logic - The black sector was strong today. The emphasis on "eliminating backward production capacity" at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st led to strong bullish sentiment. The significant increase in the risk - averse exit of short - position funds for coking coal and coke led to the rebound of their futures prices to a high level. The increase in auction transaction prices indicates that the spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve in July, and the rebound is mainly driven by sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - At the critical node of the long - short game for coking coal and coke, the interpretation of relevant policies has a significant impact on sentiment [1]