格林大华期货钢材早盘提示-20250703

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]