高盛：石油追踪-欧佩克 + 会议前全球原油库存上升

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates expectations for production increases and market stability, suggesting a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have remained stable as market attention shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an increase in production is anticipated [1][2] - Global visible commercial stocks have increased by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last three months, indicating a mixed supply-demand balance [3][5] - US crude production reached an all-time high in April but is expected to decline in the following months [5][34] - Gasoline and diesel margins have retreated from mid-June highs but remain elevated due to tight clean product stocks [4][59] Summary by Sections Production and Supply - OPEC+ is expected to announce a production increase of 411 kb/d, with the possibility of further increases after August due to non-OPEC supply growth [1][2] - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.1 mb/d, slightly above previous expectations, while Canada liquids production has edged down to 5.7 mb/d [26][32] - OPEC8+ crude and condensate seaborne net exports have increased by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year [37] Demand - Global trackable oil demand nowcast is 0.1 mb/d above its year-ago level, with China oil demand at 16.9 mb/d, reflecting a slight increase [42][45] - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast stands at 13.3 mb/d, indicating a stable demand environment [48] Inventories - OECD commercial stocks nowcast has decreased by 7 mb to 2,755 mb, which is 91 mb below the year-ago level [18][22] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 17 mb, indicating a build-up in inventories [5][14] Prices and Margins - The gap between Brent 1M/36M timespread and its inventory-implied fair value has widened to 14 percentage points, indicating potential pricing pressure [51] - Refining margins in the US Gulf Coast remain supported due to the concentration of refining capacity in the region [4][59] Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could influence oil supply dynamics and market stability [1][3]