摩根士丹利：美越贸易协定

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the US-Vietnam trade deal Core Insights - The US-Vietnam trade deal announced by President Trump includes a 20% tariff on goods sent to the US from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on transshipments, while allowing US products to enter Vietnam at zero tariff [1] - The announced 20% tariff is at the low end of local expectations in Vietnam, where communities anticipated a range of 20%-25% [2] - Vietnam is expected to further open its market to US products, particularly in sectors like automobiles and energy, which aligns with prior expectations [3] - The classification of "transshipment" goods and the rules surrounding it are critical to understanding the economic impact of the trade deal [4] - A product-specific exemption list is anticipated to significantly affect the overall tariff landscape, with Vietnam's exposure to consumer electronics potentially leading to lower effective tariffs [6] Summary by Sections Trade Deal Details - The trade deal allows Vietnam to provide total market access to the US, which is expected to benefit the sales of US products, particularly SUVs [1] - Vietnam has already begun lowering import tariffs on various products, including automobiles and LNG, prior to the US tariff announcement [3] Tariff Implications - Products with high Vietnam content may face lower tariffs, with those having 100% Vietnam content potentially facing tariffs as low as 10% [2] - The effective average incremental tariff against Vietnam has been reduced to around 9% due to product-specific exemptions, significantly lower than the initially announced 43% [6] Market Access and Economic Impact - The easing of administrative processes for US companies in Vietnam is expected to enhance market access and stimulate growth [3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring further details regarding financial market access for US and international capital [3]