Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - On the macro - level, the weaker - than - expected US ADP data has raised hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than the market expected, and the market is waiting for the upcoming non - farm payrolls report [1] - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina enterprise in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a 9.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - As of July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. In July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, the arrival of goods may continue. Coupled with the weak downstream consumption and slow pick - up, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase steadily in the early July [2] - Currently, the domestic bauxite price has not been significantly adjusted, and the long - term contract price of imported bauxite in the third quarter is expected to be mainly stable and declining. The spot trading of imported bauxite is light, and the price is stable [2] - The current off - season inventory accumulation has just begun, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The macro - risk pricing has increased, and attention should be paid to the domestic policy promotion. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be mainly strong within the range, and then the inventory - consumption trend should be concerned [3]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250703
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-07-03 03:02