东吴证券晨会纪要-20250703

Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a structural differentiation in domestic demand while external demand remains stable overall. The focus of monetary policy is still on improving the efficiency of fund utilization [1][5] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points. The investment index is at 49.97%, up 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.74%, down 0.02 percentage points [5] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward, maintaining expectations for the Fed's first rate cut in Q3 and two cuts throughout the year [1][7] Fixed Income - The report compares the holding structures and strategies of innovation bonds in China and overseas markets, highlighting that Chinese institutional investors prioritize liquidity in their selection strategies, while overseas investors adopt more aggressive strategies [2][10] - U.S. institutional investors favor duration strategies, while Japanese investors prioritize both duration and coupon strategies. European investors show a balanced approach across all strategies [10][12] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Derlin Holdings (01709.HK), which is positioned as a leading financial service platform for family offices in the Asia-Pacific region. The company has expanded its wealth management services and is expected to see significant growth in its family office business [4][14] - Derlin Holdings' projected net profits for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are estimated at HKD 1.38 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.65 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.81%, 11.18%, and 7.84% [4][15] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its financial services, aiming to democratize access to wealth management for a broader range of investors [14][15]