铜价冲高或抑制下游消费

Industry Investment Rating - Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current spot TC price of copper concentrate remains low, but the mid-year long-term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. - Due to the premium of Comex copper price, LME and domestic inventories are continuously flowing to the US market, leading to persistent squeeze pressure. Coupled with the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is favorable for copper prices. - The operation of copper varieties is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips, with the buying range suggested between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On July 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 80,620/ton and closed at RMB 80,540/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at RMB 80,560/ton and closed at RMB 80,900/ton, up 0.35% from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand. Although there is a demand for low-price purchases, the overall situation is not ideal. The supply in Changzhou is tight, and the transaction is better than that in Shanghai. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the downward space is limited [2]. - Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, and the Challenger job - cuts reached 47,999, the lowest since December 2024. Interest rate futures almost fully price in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. China's National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over RMB 300 billion for the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025 [3]. - Mine End: India will send geologists to Zambia for copper and cobalt exploration. Chile's Congress passed the "Investment Project Approval Acceleration Act", which is expected to shorten project approval time by 30% - 70%. Peruvian non - formal miners' roadblocks have disrupted copper transportation [4]. - Smelting and Import: From January to May 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year [5]. - Consumption: The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, and that of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, up 29% year - on - year [6][7]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 93,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 324 tons to 25,097 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 30 was 126,100 tons, a change of - 4,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper Varieties: Buy hedges on dips, with the buying range between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton [8]. - Option Strategy: Sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8].