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宏观提振，聚烯烃小幅走高
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-03 05:13

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the plastic in the polyolefin market, the unilateral strategy suggests being cautiously bearish [3]. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors have boosted the sentiment in the polyolefin market, leading to a slight increase in polyolefin prices. The sharp decline in international oil and propane prices has weakened the cost - side support for polyolefins. The return of previously shut - down and overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity have slightly increased the supply. Although petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season and future maintenance of existing plants will be intensive, it can only relieve some of the pressure from new supply. Upstream inventory is being depleted, but the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, with limited demand improvement, and the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish inventory is low [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7288元/吨（+39），PP主力合约收盘价为7072元/吨（+28）；LL华北现货为7170元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 118元/吨（-59），LL华东基差为12元/吨（-39），PP华东基差为48元/吨（-28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）；PE油制生产利润为366.9元/吨（-11.7），PP油制生产利润为 - 53.1元/吨（-11.7），PDH制PP生产利润为253.7元/吨（-41.2） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content for this part. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 98.4元/吨（-50.2），PP进口利润为 - 537.0元/吨（-60.2），PP出口利润为28.2美元/吨（+7.4） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions that upstream inventory is being depleted, while the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]