美国6月"小非农"爆冷，关注"大漂亮"法案众议院表决

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].