高低硫价差延续反弹态势，低硫端驱动仍有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high-low sulfur spread continues to rebound, but the driving force on the low-sulfur end remains limited. The market has returned to the fundamental-driven logic. The differentiation pattern between high and low sulfur has significantly converged [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are in a stage of marginal weakening, with the spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread continuously declining. However, summer power generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and the increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial for the recovery of import demand [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is stable. But in the medium term, the demand share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.44% at 2,960 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.56% at 3,596 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the crude oil premium has rapidly declined, and the market has returned to fundamental-driven logic [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil's spread structure is in a stage of marginal weakening, with sufficient supply on the spot side and limited positive drivers. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil. After the ceasefire with Israel, Iran's exports show signs of recovery [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with insufficient supply of Western arbitrage cargoes and low domestic production in May. But in the medium term, the demand share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Cross-period: Short the FU2509-FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]