宏观消息提振，氯碱盘面大幅上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [5] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC price rebounded due to the market's expectation of supply - side regulation, but the weak supply - demand pattern remains, and the rebound may not last. The caustic soda futures price rose due to concerns about passive production cuts, but its fundamentals also lack positive drivers [4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,930 yuan/ton (+109), the East China basis was - 170 yuan/ton (-69), and the South China basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-59) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 504 yuan/ton (-10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit was - 0.4 dollars/ton (+7.4) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.5 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory was 36.2 tons (+0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (+0.81%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.81% (+0.07%) [2]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.9 tons (-1.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,391 yuan/ton (+33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (-33) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,415 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 552.0 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 70.03 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+50.51) [3]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.04 tons (+2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.58 tons (-0.27), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+1.30%) [3]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina was 80.67% (-0.07%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.57% (-2.23%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, and the overall PVC operating rate decreased slightly. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was put into trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, so the supply side was under pressure [4]. - Demand side: The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and export orders were stable. The BIS standard policy in India was postponed for 6 months, which supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was uncertain [4]. - Inventory: The social PVC inventory stopped falling and rebounded [4]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: The operating rate of upstream caustic soda continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities of Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, so the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina was stable, there were expectations of new capacity in Shandong, and the export support was okay, but the non - aluminum downstream demand was weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory removal was not smooth [4].