甲醇日报：港口累库速率放缓，但基差仍在回落-20250703

Report industry investment rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry [4] Core view of the report - Iranian methanol plants are gradually resuming production, and the port inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. After the paper cargo delivery in late June, the port basis has been weakening. There is still pressure on future arrivals, and MTO plants plan to conduct maintenance in July, so the port is still in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows strong resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1 mentioned promoting the "orderly exit of backward production capacity", but there is no specific document yet, which requires close attention [3] Summary according to relevant catalogs I. Methanol basis & inter - period structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][11][23] II. Methanol production profit, MTO profit, import profit - Figures are provided for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][32] III. Methanol operation and inventory - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [35][36][38] IV. Regional price differences - Regional price differences are shown in figures such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [40][46][49] V. Traditional downstream profit - Figures display the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][56][58]