美越贸易协议达成，市场风险偏好回升

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market's focus is on the negotiations before the deadline of reciprocal tariffs, and short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market. Although oil prices and risk assets rebounded due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement, the crude oil fundamentals had no obvious positive news and EIA data was bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's August - delivery light crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; September - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 2.11% at 509 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.156 million barrels, up 36,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 749,000 barrels to 7.487 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 678,000 barrels to 2.722 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.391 million barrels to 8.947 million barrels [1]. - For the week ending June 27 in the US, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.493 million barrels (previous value - 464,000 barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 3.845 million barrels (expected - 1.809 million barrels, previous value - 5.836 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 239,000 barrels (previous value 237,000 barrels). US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [1]. - Indonesia plans to achieve a daily crude oil production target of 1 million barrels by 2029 or 2030. Currently, its daily crude oil consumption is 1.6 million barrels, while daily production is between 580,000 and 600,000 barrels [1]. - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not react significantly. It expects the production increase in August to be the last one, but there is a risk of further quota increases after August [1]. Investment Logic - Driven by the US - Vietnam trade agreement, oil prices and risk assets such as US stocks rebounded. However, there was no obvious positive news in the crude oil fundamentals, and EIA data was bearish, indicating that short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3].