欧洲极端天?来袭，能化延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual perspectives of each variety, the overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is mainly in a state of shock, with some varieties showing a tendency of shock - weakness or shock - strength. 2. Core Viewpoints - The European heatwave may boost middle - distillate and crude oil prices from an emotional and marginal demand perspective, and there is also support for oil - based chemicals [1]. - The domestic commodity market was generally supported on Wednesday. The anti - involution initiative in the photovoltaic glass and steel industries led to a significant rebound in the black sector, slightly boosting the chemical sector. However, the supply - demand situation of chemicals has not changed substantially [2]. - In general, the energy and chemical industry should be treated with a shock mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, and oil prices soared significantly [4]. - Main Logic: Concerns about geopolitics led to the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. The EIA inventory report showed lower Cushing inventory and diesel inventory in the United States, and the diesel crack spread reached a high of $33 per barrel. The European heatwave increased the expected demand for oil - fired power generation. Although OPEC increased production in June, it did not lead to effective inventory accumulation in the largest demand country [7]. - Outlook: The high point caused by geopolitics is unlikely to be reached again, but the market may continue to fluctuate while waiting for widespread inventory accumulation [7]. LPG - Viewpoint: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market may experience weak fluctuations [12]. - Main Logic: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the market gradually returned to fundamental trading. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of liquefied gas and civil gas continues to increase, and it is the off - season for combustion. The downstream replenishment willingness is low. Although the PDH start - up rate is gradually increasing, the profit is still low, and the subsequent increase is limited [12]. - Outlook: The current fundamental situation remains loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitics and tariffs. In the short term, the market is cautious, so PG is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs approaching the 90 - day tariff time node [12]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The asphalt futures price fluctuated, waiting for the fermentation of negative factors [10]. - Main Logic: The asphalt futures price fluctuated with crude oil. OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, increasing the certainty of heavy - oil supply. The supply of asphalt raw materials in China is sufficient, and the supply in South China is increasing rapidly. The demand side is not firmly supported [10]. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to be fully realized [10]. - Main Logic: OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the decline in natural gas prices may relieve the natural gas crisis in Egypt, reducing the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [10]. - Outlook: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while demand decreases. Geopolitical upgrades will only have a short - term impact on prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price declined following crude oil [11]. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. - Outlook: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand for high - sulfur substitution. Currently, it is undervalued and will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - Viewpoint: There is a differentiation between the inland and ports, and methanol will fluctuate [20]. - Main Logic: On July 2, the methanol futures price rebounded. The price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The important domestic meeting boosted market sentiment. The coal price increase affected the cost of methanol production. The olefin market was weak in the short term, and the MTO profit was still low [21]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations [21]. Urea - Viewpoint: The domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, relying on exports for promotion. Urea may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - Main Logic: The futures price rebounded slightly in the past two days, driving better spot trading. There is still support from the end of agricultural demand and export port collection. However, the top - dressing season is coming to an end, and the demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories is limited [21]. - Outlook: The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose. With the opening of port inspections, urea enterprises are accelerating port collection, relying on exports to balance the supply - demand gap. The urea market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change in export volume [21]. Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The basis remained stable, and the units were restarting one after another. Ethylene glycol continued to fluctuate [16]. - Main Logic: The current low inventory of ethylene glycol supports the futures price, but the expected increase in future supply weakens the upward momentum. Therefore, it will continue to fluctuate [16]. - Outlook: In a low - inventory pattern, the absolute value of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. PX - Viewpoint: Crude oil was temporarily stable, and PX fluctuated with a slight upward trend [13]. - Main Logic: In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC +'s continued production increase and concerns about global demand prospects. On the supply - demand side, some domestic PX units will be shut down for maintenance, and the focus is on whether the expected changes in the units will be realized [13]. - Outlook: There is a divergence between cost and supply - demand factors, and attention should be paid to crude oil risks [13]. PTA - Viewpoint: Supply - demand weakened, but the cost - side PX was strong, and PTA fluctuated [13]. - Main Logic: Crude oil prices may decline this week, providing weak support for PTA. Although there is less PTA supply and the main suppliers still intend to support the market, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, and demand is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate this week [13]. - Outlook: The supply - demand of PTA is marginally weakening, but it will follow the relatively strong performance of the cost side in the short term [13]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The basis declined, the processing fee increased, and the absolute value fluctuated with raw materials [16]. - Main Logic: The short - fiber processing fee expanded again on Wednesday, and the basis declined this week. The downstream polyester yarn may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the start - up rate may decline. There are no major contradictions in the short - fiber industry [16]. - Outlook: The short - fiber processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [16]. Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: Maintenance has gradually begun, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out [15]. - Main Logic: The weakening of the PTA basis has repaired the bottle - chip processing difference. In the short term, the price of the polyester bottle - chip market is expected to continue to fluctuate with raw material costs [18]. - Outlook: The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and there is limited room for further compression of the bottle - chip spot processing fee [18]. PP - Viewpoint: An important meeting boosted market sentiment, and PP fluctuated in the short term [24]. - Main Logic: The important meeting boosted market sentiment. The cost side was affected by oil price fluctuations, and the market was closely watching OPEC +'s production decision. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overseas, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened, and the export window has limited expansion [24]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations [24]. Plastic - Viewpoint: The anti - involution initiative boosted market sentiment, and plastics rebounded slightly [23]. - Main Logic: The anti - involution initiative and the meeting boosted market sentiment. Oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand situation in the United States changed. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with increased production capacity and high supply pressure [23]. - Outlook: The plastic 09 contract will fluctuate in the short term [23]. Styrene - Viewpoint: During the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene fluctuated narrowly [14]. - Main Logic: Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, the decline in oil prices led to a weakening of market bullish sentiment. The spot supply - demand weakened, and the port inventory increased. The supply of styrene is returning, and the downstream demand is gradually fading, showing a trend of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the low inventory level of the styrene industry chain and the difference between pure benzene and styrene [14]. - Outlook: Fluctuations with a slight downward trend [14]. PVC - Viewpoint: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC fluctuated [27]. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the anti - involution initiative and overseas fiscal and monetary policies improved market risk appetite. At the micro level, the long - term supply - demand situation of PVC is still under pressure, with new capacity coming on stream, the off - season for domestic demand, and limited growth in exports [27]. - Outlook: Although market risk appetite has improved, the supply - demand outlook for PVC is pessimistic, and the market should mainly short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Liquid chlorine was under pressure, and caustic soda rebounded weakly [27]. - Main Logic: In the short term, caustic soda fluctuated. The support comes from improved market risk appetite and an upward shift in the cost center. The pressure lies in the pessimistic supply - demand outlook from July to August. The production volume will increase in July, and the comprehensive cost center of caustic soda will shift upward [28]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations. If downstream replenishment is active, the rebound space for caustic soda will open up [28].