中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，玻璃和工业硅大幅上涨-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - Domestic: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - Stock Index Futures: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - Stock Index Options: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Shipping: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Iron Ore: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Coke: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Coking Coal: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Ferrosilicon: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Silicomanganese: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Glass: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Soda Ash: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Alumina: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Aluminum and Zinc: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - Lead: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Nickel: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Tin: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - LPG: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Asphalt: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - Methanol: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Urea: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - PX: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - PTA: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Short - fiber: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - Bottle Chips: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - PP: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Plastic: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Styrene: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Caustic Soda: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - Protein Meal: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - Corn/Starch: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Pigs: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Rubber: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Pulp: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - Cotton: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Sugar: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - Timber: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].