EIA周度报告点评-20250703

Report Overview - The report is an EIA weekly data report dated July 3, 2025, analyzing the oil inventory and market situation in the US as of June 27 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA report is relatively bearish as both crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, with overseas demand appearing weak and potential negative impacts on future refinery operating rate expectations. However, geopolitical risks and trade agreements later pushed up oil prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Main Data - As of June 27, US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.951 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.8 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels [2] - Gasoline inventory increased by 4.188 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 0.2 million barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 1.71 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels [2] - US crude oil production decreased by 2 thousand barrels/day to 13.433 million barrels/day, net imports increased by 2.94 million barrels/day to 4.614 million barrels/day, and processing volume increased by 118 thousand barrels/day to 17.105 million barrels/day [3] Report Comments - The unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory was mainly due to significant changes in net imports. Crude oil imports increased by 0.975 million barrels/day and exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels/day in a single week, with the single - week export volume hitting a two - year low [4] - The increase in gasoline inventory was unexpected. Although the four - week smoothed gasoline demand data increased by 0.09425 million barrels/day week - on - week, the single - week demand data decreased by 1.048 million barrels/day, which may reduce the future refinery operating rate expectations [6] Market Impact - After the report was released, oil prices declined in the short term. However, later, oil prices generally rose due to geopolitical risks from Iran's suspension of cooperation with the IAEA and the US - Vietnam trade agreement [8]