国富期货早间看点-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive information on the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental data, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that various factors such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic indicators are influencing the market [1][2][16] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and their percentage changes are provided for various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2][3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (July 7 - 11) for US soybean - producing states indicates that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be generally high. The US Midwest will have local precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures in the middle and later part of the week [4][6] 国际供需 - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 4880 tons, and Malaysia's is expected to be 1910 tons. Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 4210 tons, 1.2% higher than last month's estimate. India's June palm oil imports increased by 61% month - on - month. The SOPA expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area [8][9][11] 国内供需 - On July 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 342% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the overall oil mill operating rate rose to 66.59% [13] Macro - news 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%. The US "small non - farm" data was unexpectedly negative. Other economic data such as ADP employment, Challenger enterprise layoffs, and mortgage application activity are also provided [16] 国内要闻 - On July 2, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan [18] 资金流向 - On July 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 452 million yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 2.938 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 3.39 billion yuan [21] 套利跟踪 - Not provided in the content