Huaxin Securities·2025-07-03 07:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 21.1% in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreases in coal sales volume and prices, as well as declines in electricity sales volume and prices [4]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Hangjin Energy, which adds significant coal reserves and production capacity, enhancing its integrated competitive advantage and long-term profitability [5][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024, continuing its trend of high returns to investors since 2017 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a coal production of 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume fell by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 50.04 billion, 50.28 billion, and 50.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.5, 16.4, and 16.3 [7][8]. - The main revenue for 2025 is projected at 321.38 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.0% from the previous year [10]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 0.19%, a year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 4.22%, up 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The financial expense ratio increased to 0.23%, marking a year-on-year rise of 0.20 percentage points [5]. Asset and Resource Development - The acquisition of assets is expected to significantly enhance the company's operational efficiency and sales effectiveness, particularly in the eastern Mongolia region [5]. - The Tarang Coal Mine is projected to reach an annual production capacity of 10 million tons by 2029, which will substantially boost revenue and profitability [5].