Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to intensify as the purchasing pace slows. The price is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. In addition, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the pattern of oversupply and dragging down the price increase, and there are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,980 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2508 is 64,060 yuan, up 2.99%; lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,960 yuan, up 3.19%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,700 yuan, up 3.07%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,560 yuan, up 3.01% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 632 yuan, up 7 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 740 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1275 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4275 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5100 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,550 yuan, up 55 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,520 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,455 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2310 yuan, down 830 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 360 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,837.59032 tons, up 1936.407 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is not provided; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,635 tons, up 269 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 37,170 tons, up 1260 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 23,180 tons, up 240 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,326 yuan, and the profit is 470 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,253 yuan, and the profit is - 5965 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium producer in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250703
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-03 07:30