黑色金属数据日报-20250703

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The black sector led the rise on Wednesday, driven by the "anti - involution" concept, but without substantial supply - side policies, the positive impact on profits and prices may not last. In the off - season, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot market is performing well, but the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform bull market. Short - term empty orders are advised to be avoided, and industrial customers can build cash - and - carry positions [5]. - In the silicon iron and manganese silicon market, trading is based on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with prices oscillating strongly. Industrial customers should conduct futures - cash hedging [6]. - For iron ore, it is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to whether the "anti - involution" sentiment can drive it to break through the upper limit [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On July 2, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures all rose, with the far - month RB2601 rising 2.46% and the near - month RB2510 rising 2.61%. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed, with the HC basis falling 45 yuan/ton and the RB basis rising 8 yuan/ton. In the current environment, there is no strong rebound drive for the black sector. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and focus on the time node for entering cash - and - carry positions [2][4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, coking coal auction transactions were good, and most prices rose. On the futures side, affected by the news of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the black sector except coking coal hit new highs. The iron - making water output remained above 241wt, but the market worried about off - season risks. It is recommended that short - term empty orders be avoided, and industrial customers should build cash - and - carry positions [5]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The market is trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectation, with an overall bullish sentiment. The supply of silicon iron is increasing slightly, and demand is also rising. The supply of manganese silicon is rising, and demand is supported. It is recommended to buy call options at low prices [6][8]. Iron Ore - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on governance has made the supply - side reform ferment. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production restrictions on iron - making water and whether the production - restriction storm will spread. Iron ore is in an oscillating range, and it is recommended to short when the price reaches the upper limit of the range [7][8].