Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is volatile consolidation, while rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs are expected to have short - term rebounds. However, the long - term outlook for live pigs is still bearish, with prices likely to grind at the bottom under pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - From the CPC monthly outlook, the soybean planting weather in the US in July is generally favorable, and the South American harvest is basically settled. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation phase, and feed enterprises' inventory replenishment has recovered significantly. The June USDA report is neutral, with a slight decrease in US soybean planting area and limited impact on production reduction. The market fluctuates around the fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate below the 10 - day moving average in 3 - 5 days. The main contract range is [2920, 2970] [1][4]. - The latest futures price of the main contract is 2944 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2922.86 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 207.6608 yuan/ton, down 2.57 yuan from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is not under pressure, but the high commercial rapeseed meal inventory is bearish for the July contract. From June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. Canada's June rapeseed planting area is lower than expected, but the termination of US - Canada trade negotiations is a greater negative factor. Short - selling should be cautious due to low imports and high tariffs. The main contract range is [2550, 2600] [1][5]. - As of July 1, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 1.41 tons from the previous week. In the domestic market, the oversupply of soybean meal has squeezed the market share of rapeseed meal [5]. Palm Oil - China's palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved but are still lower than last year in the second half. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started, with a downward - moving oscillation center. However, India's good import prospects in June, the reduction of import tariffs since May 30, and the promotion of the B20 policy are positive factors. Before the US biodiesel policy is determined, short - selling is cautious. It is expected to remain below the previous high this week. The main contract range is [8360, 8530] [1][8]. - As of June 27, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year. Malaysia's June palm oil exports increased by 4.52% month - on - month, and India's June palm oil imports surged 61% month - on - month [7]. Cotton - In the international market, the sowing in the US main cotton - producing areas is nearly finished, with an improvement in the excellent - good rate and drought conditions. The USDA's planting intention is higher than expected, and the ICE market is expected to be weak in the short term. In China, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is 5% higher than expected. The high - temperature impact in Xinjiang is limited and is gradually easing. The de - stocking of domestic cotton is fast, but downstream orders are weak after a short - term rebound. The futures price is expected to rebound under pressure in the short term. The main contract range is [13750, 13900] [1][12]. - The main contract CF2509 closed at 13805 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The domestic spot price dropped 0.33% to 15160 yuan/ton. The US cotton sowing progress is 95%, with a planting area of 1010 million acres, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and an excellent - good rate of 51%. India's sown area increased 7% year - on - year [10]. Jujube - The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the actual fruit - setting situation in the producing areas shows no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory de - stocking is slow. The demand is expected to weaken in the quarter, with no obvious increase recently. The short - term futures price is expected to rebound under pressure, and attention should be paid to the potential fluctuations in the second - half of the month due to the final yield determination. The main contract range is [10850, 11450] [1][14]. - The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11055 yuan/ton, up 1.98%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 8 tons week - on - week and is higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - The short - term rebound is due to the出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of second - fattening, which has temporarily alleviated the supply pressure. However, the production capacity has not been cleared, and the price increase may not be sustainable. In the long run, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is likely to grind at the bottom under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of short - selling on rallies for 2025 contracts. The main contract range is [14200, 14500] [1][17]. - The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14340 yuan/ton, up 3.20%. The domestic live pig spot price increased 0.07% to 15090 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, and the inventory of breeding sows in May was 4042 million, a 0.1% month - on - month increase [16].
豆粕日报：短线震荡整理-20250703
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-03 08:03