申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2509 contract up 0.11% and an increase in open interest. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China also mostly decreased. Overseas, 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The domestic economic environment has both positive and negative factors, but the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: Yields of Treasury bond futures generally rose, with T2512 having the highest increase of 0.16%. Open interest of most contracts changed, with T2509 and others increasing. Trading volume varied by contract, and open interest increased in some contracts and decreased in others. The cross - period spreads of some contracts changed [2] - IRR: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term Market Interest Rates: Short - term market interest rates generally declined, with SHIBOR7 down 3.3bp, DR007 down 4.85bp, and GC007 down 6.9bp [2] - China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally decreased, with the 10Y yield down 1.08bp to 1.64%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 22.82bp [2] - Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields: The 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 4bp, 4bp, and 1.5bp respectively [2] Macroeconomic News - Central Bank Operations: On July 2, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [3] - Economic Outlook: Many foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth. Experts believe that macro - policies need to be further strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - Regulatory Policies: The CSRC emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, and promoting capital market reform. The central government is paying more attention to fiscal policies for stable growth, with some ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds to be issued ahead of schedule [3] Industry Information - Interest Rate Changes: On July 2, money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively rose, driven by factors such as the Trump tax reform bill, the US - Vietnam trade agreement, and market supply - demand changes [3] - Market Analysis: Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10 - year active bond yield down to 1.636%. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal at the beginning of the month and the decline in Shibor short - term varieties kept the market funds relatively loose. The US economic data was mixed, but the US - Vietnam trade agreement led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields. The domestic economic climate generally expanded, and the central bank's supportive monetary policy will support Treasury bond futures prices [3]